Progress in Syria

On the one hand, reports the Post's leading Arabic speaking reporter, there is new space opening up for dissidents and reformers, in part driven by technology: cell phones, satellite TV, and the internet.

On the other hand, while much of the debate revolves around efforts to gauge where Syria falls in American plans, their evaluation of what America wants for Syria is entirely cynical. In fact, pressure on the government, at least according to Shadid, may, at least on the margins, increase support for the government, to the extent that people fear the chaos that would follow the fall of the regime.

Almost no one views the United States as working toward democracy in Syria. Rather, people see it securing its own interests -- more pliable Arab governments in a region dominated by Israel.

Dissidents mention President Bush's pledges for democratic change less frequently than U.S. reconciliation with authoritarian Libya after it dismantled its weapons of mass destruction programs. Few of the opposition leaders rule out a U.S. reconciliation with the Syrian government if it goes far enough to meet the Bush administration's demands.

The demands in question being sealing off the border with Iraq. But it hardly seems as if that would be enough to end all pressure on the regime.

Just the same:

The deep wariness aside, though, almost all opposition leaders say they still see U.S. pressure short of intervention as beneficial in itself, creating unprecedented space for them. The question they ask: Can it keep exerting pressure without going too far?

"Objectively speaking, Syrian democrats benefited from this pressure. This has no relation at all with American intentions," Saleh said. "We have a suppressive regime. When it suffers from heavy outside pressure, its hand will be shorter."

Comments

[Athena]

You should read Syrian blogger, Ammar Abdulhamid. He has lots of interesting commentary concerning the fall of the regime and the "Arab street" in Syria.